The realbacktesting Academy

ADX measures trend strength, not direction. Learn what its line contains, why familiar thresholds are only conventions, and how to test an ADX rule.

Volume Profile shows where trading volume accumulated by price. Learn what POC and value area measure, and how to test the rules built from them.

Trading seasonality looks for recurring calendar patterns. Learn what the research shows, what it cannot prove, and how to test a rule honestly.

MACD compares fast and slow moving averages. Learn what its crossovers and divergence show, where they mislead, and how to test them.

Pivot points turn a completed period's high, low and close into fixed reference levels. Here is the formula, the ambiguity, and how to test it.

Depth of Market shows displayed liquidity, not a promise. Learn how traders read the DOM, where it misleads, and how to test it.

Harmonic pattern trading measures XABCD swings with Fibonacci ratios. Learn where the rules end, subjectivity begins, and testing matters.

Trend following trades with persistent price moves. Learn the rules, disputed evidence and how to test the method without hindsight.

Bollinger Bands measure relative price and volatility. Learn the trend-versus-reversion trap and how to test the rules honestly.

Ichimoku Cloud combines trend, momentum and range structure. Learn its five lines, mixed evidence and a testable rule set.

Martingale adds risk after losses; anti-martingale adds it after wins. Learn the mechanics, limits and a clean way to test both.

Volatility targeting adjusts exposure as risk changes. Learn the rule, the mixed evidence and how to test it without hindsight.

Cumulative Volume Delta tracks signed trading pressure. Learn what CVD measures, where the data can mislead and how to test it.

Dow Theory classifies trends through swings, confirmation and volume. Its logic is useful; its trading edge still needs an objective test.

BOS labels trend continuation; CHoCH flags a possible shift. Both depend on subjective swing rules, so neither is evidence until tested.

Mean reversion trading fades stretched prices or spreads. It is testable, but costs, regime shifts, and timing decide whether it survives.

Elliott Wave maps price into impulse and corrective waves. Useful structure, weak as a signal until the count is objective and tested.

RSI divergence compares price with momentum. Useful context, weak as a signal until the pattern is defined and backtested.

Market Profile TPO maps time at price into value areas and POC. Useful auction context, subjective when turned into trades.

The Kelly criterion turns edge and payoff into a position-size formula. Useful math, dangerous when the edge is only an estimate.

Donchian channels turn price extremes into breakout rules. They are simple, testable, and still vulnerable to whipsaw.

Fibonacci retracement levels turn a prior swing into possible pullback zones. Useful for structure, weak as a signal until tested.

ATR measures how much a market is moving, not where it should go. Useful for stops and sizing, useless as an edge until tested.

VWAP is a volume-weighted average price and execution benchmark. Useful, measurable, and still not a trading edge by itself.

A plain-spoken overview of SMC — structure, order blocks, fair value gaps, liquidity, premium/discount — and the honest problem: it is discretionary.

Two different things get called 'liquidity': order-book depth you can measure, and a smart-money story about stop hunts you mostly cannot.

Order blocks and fair value gaps are the core zones of Smart Money Concepts — how traders mark them, and why subjectivity makes them hard to test.

An honest look at Wyckoff's three laws, the Composite Operator, the market cycle and accumulation schematics — plus why the phases are idealised.

A supply or demand zone is a base before an imbalanced move. Here is how they form, why zone-drawing is subjective, and how to make it testable.

Reading trades from raw candles, structure and levels — what price action is, and what the evidence really says about candlestick patterns.