Free tool · Market statistics
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) volatility by hour, day and month
When Bitcoin moves, how much, and on which days — measured on 2077 trading days of real one-minute data from our broker feed, 2021-01-01 to 2026-11-01. Descriptive statistics of the past, not a forecast.
Volatility by hour
Over the last 12 months, the hour with the widest average range on Bitcoin was 15:00–16:00 UTC (132.8 bp), and the quietest was 10:00–11:00 UTC (51.8 bp): 2.6 times smaller.
Average range of each one-hour bar, in basis points of price. Hours without prices in our feed are not drawn.
Table: range by hour, UTC, last 12 months
| Hour (UTC) | Mean, bp | Median, bp | Hours measured |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 75.9 | 58.0 | 126 |
| 01:00 | 81.6 | 68.1 | 124 |
| 02:00 | 70.6 | 58.1 | 124 |
| 03:00 | 64.9 | 56.1 | 125 |
| 04:00 | 59.9 | 52.5 | 125 |
| 05:00 | 56.3 | 46.3 | 124 |
| 06:00 | 60.9 | 47.2 | 119 |
| 07:00 | 60.0 | 48.1 | 119 |
| 08:00 | 63.7 | 55.2 | 121 |
| 09:00 | 62.1 | 51.0 | 122 |
| 10:00 | 51.8 | 44.5 | 122 |
| 11:00 | 54.3 | 43.8 | 119 |
| 12:00 | 59.5 | 48.2 | 119 |
| 13:00 | 75.8 | 66.5 | 119 |
| 14:00 | 122.7 | 120.9 | 118 |
| 15:00 | 132.8 | 118.6 | 119 |
| 16:00 | 107.9 | 95.4 | 121 |
| 17:00 | 100.4 | 88.6 | 122 |
| 18:00 | 93.0 | 78.6 | 122 |
| 19:00 | 77.3 | 69.4 | 122 |
| 20:00 | 78.4 | 68.0 | 126 |
| 21:00 | 65.9 | 51.4 | 127 |
| 22:00 | 67.7 | 53.8 | 127 |
| 23:00 | 68.2 | 50.1 | 127 |
Day of the week
Monday has the widest average daily range (5.19%), Saturday the narrowest (2.68%). No day shows an average open-to-close return that is distinguishable from zero at 95% confidence.
| Day | Average range | Open → close, mean ± 95% CI | Up days | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 5.19 % | +0.294 % ± 0.414 | 52.0 % | 304 |
| Tuesday | 4.68 % | +0.022 % ± 0.334 | 51.0 % | 304 |
| Wednesday | 4.85 % | +0.356 % ± 0.361 | 51.0 % | 304 |
| Thursday | 4.59 % | −0.287 % ± 0.335 | 44.7 % | 304 |
| Friday | 4.88 % | +0.043 % ± 0.365 | 47.9 % | 305 |
| Saturday | 2.68 % | +0.197 % ± 0.219 | 57.3 % | 255 |
| Sunday | 3.13 % | +0.086 % ± 0.250 | 54.2 % | 301 |
Average open → close return, year by year (%)
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | +0.303 | −0.056 | +0.901 | −0.262 | +0.131 | +0.790 | −0.132 |
| 2022 | −0.386 | +0.022 | −0.243 | −0.241 | −0.473 | −0.075 | +0.071 |
| 2023 | +0.050 | +0.977 | +0.465 | −0.256 | +0.202 | +0.332 | +0.399 |
| 2024 | +0.863 | −0.204 | +0.213 | +0.162 | +0.325 | +0.120 | +0.272 |
| 2025 | +0.104 | −0.130 | +0.639 | −0.497 | −0.099 | −0.137 | +0.071 |
| 2026 | +0.932 | −0.577 | +0.113 | −0.694 | +0.195 | +0.054 | −0.202 |
Monthly seasonality
Return of each calendar month, from the first open to the last close. With only 6 years per month, one unusual year moves the average a lot: the median and the year-by-year table are there to show it.
| Month | Mean | Median | Positive | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +5.24 % | +4.16 % | 50 % | 6 |
| February | +9.94 % | +4.49 % | 67 % | 6 |
| March | +12.78 % | +12.86 % | 83 % | 6 |
| April | −0.79 % | −0.20 % | 50 % | 6 |
| May | −6.96 % | −5.71 % | 33 % | 6 |
| June | −10.21 % | −7.17 % | 33 % | 6 |
| July | +10.37 % | +7.77 % | 83 % | 6 |
| August | −0.48 % | −7.64 % | 33 % | 6 |
| September | +2.08 % | +4.61 % | 67 % | 6 |
| October | +11.95 % | +7.78 % | 67 % | 6 |
| November | +1.64 % | −6.18 % | 40 % | 5 |
| December | −3.25 % | −3.13 % | 20 % | 5 |
Every month, year by year (%)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | +12.7 | +38.9 | +30.5 | −3.9 | −36.4 | −6.0 | +19.7 | +12.8 | −7.4 | +40.2 | −6.2 | −19.1 |
| 2022 | −17.2 | +8.1 | +9.9 | −15.9 | −17.2 | −41.2 | +26.7 | −15.1 | −3.8 | +6.0 | −16.3 | −3.1 |
| 2023 | +38.5 | +0.9 | +22.8 | +3.5 | −7.8 | +12.1 | −4.0 | −10.7 | +4.0 | +28.0 | +9.0 | +12.8 |
| 2024 | −0.3 | +44.5 | +15.9 | −15.6 | +12.4 | −8.4 | +4.3 | −8.8 | +8.3 | +9.5 | +38.4 | −3.1 |
| 2025 | +8.7 | −17.6 | −4.4 | +14.7 | +10.7 | +2.6 | +8.3 | −6.5 | +5.2 | −4.6 | −16.8 | −3.8 |
| 2026 | −10.9 | −15.1 | +2.0 | +12.4 | −3.6 | −20.4 | +7.2 | +25.4 | +6.2 | −7.4 | — | — |
Trading sessions
How much of the day's range happens inside each session, over the last 12 months. Sessions overlap, so the shares do not add up to 100%. A session with no prices in our feed is not listed.
| Session | Average range | Median share of the day's range | Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo 09:00–15:00 Tokyo time | 150.9 bp | 43 % | 350 |
| London 08:00–16:30 London time | 220.9 bp | 68 % | 351 |
| New York 08:00–17:00 New York time | 241.9 bp | 74 % | 351 |
Volatility over the last year
ATR (14) as a percentage of the price, one point per trading day.
How it is measured
- One-minute bid prices from the cTrader broker feed we use for our own backtests: 2077 complete trading days, 2021-01-01 to 2026-11-01.
- A trading day is the broker's: it closes at 17:00 New York time, as in cTrader. Partial days (holidays) are left out.
- Range = high − low of the period, as a share of its opening price. 1 bp (basis point) = 0.01%. ATR is Wilder's 14-day average true range.
- The hourly profile is measured in UTC and kept separately for US summer and winter time, so the hours shown in your time zone stay right all year.
- Updated every day after the market data sync. These are descriptive statistics of the past: they are not a forecast and not a trading signal.