Free tool · Market statistics
Gold (XAUUSD) volatility by hour, day and month
When Gold moves, how much, and on which days — measured on 1505 trading days of real one-minute data from our broker feed, 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-30. Descriptive statistics of the past, not a forecast.
Volatility by hour
Over the last 12 months, the hour with the widest average range on Gold was 15:00–16:00 UTC (82.7 bp), and the quietest was 04:00–05:00 UTC (30.3 bp): 2.7 times smaller.
Average range of each one-hour bar, in basis points of price. Hours without prices in our feed are not drawn.
Table: range by hour, UTC, last 12 months
| Hour (UTC) | Mean, bp | Median, bp | Hours measured |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 50.3 | 37.1 | 89 |
| 01:00 | 69.3 | 48.0 | 89 |
| 02:00 | 53.5 | 40.4 | 89 |
| 03:00 | 39.8 | 32.1 | 89 |
| 04:00 | 30.3 | 25.5 | 88 |
| 05:00 | 52.5 | 40.7 | 88 |
| 06:00 | 48.0 | 35.0 | 88 |
| 07:00 | 39.9 | 30.1 | 88 |
| 08:00 | 46.4 | 35.0 | 88 |
| 09:00 | 45.4 | 31.2 | 88 |
| 10:00 | 38.0 | 30.8 | 88 |
| 11:00 | 39.8 | 28.5 | 88 |
| 12:00 | 42.7 | 34.5 | 88 |
| 13:00 | 65.6 | 53.5 | 88 |
| 14:00 | 76.2 | 63.7 | 88 |
| 15:00 | 82.7 | 62.1 | 88 |
| 16:00 | 67.4 | 50.9 | 88 |
| 17:00 | 48.7 | 38.5 | 88 |
| 18:00 | 49.5 | 37.1 | 88 |
| 19:00 | 43.7 | 30.4 | 87 |
| 20:00 | 47.9 | 32.9 | 83 |
| 21:00 | 30.7 | 23.9 | 83 |
| 23:00 | 53.2 | 41.3 | 89 |
Day of the week
Friday has the widest average daily range (1.68%), Monday the narrowest (1.51%). No day shows an average open-to-close return that is distinguishable from zero at 95% confidence.
| Day | Average range | Open → close, mean ± 95% CI | Up days | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 1.51 % | −0.015 % ± 0.116 | 52.3 % | 300 |
| Tuesday | 1.51 % | +0.036 % ± 0.122 | 54.3 % | 304 |
| Wednesday | 1.56 % | +0.068 % ± 0.120 | 53.6 % | 302 |
| Thursday | 1.62 % | +0.024 % ± 0.123 | 49.3 % | 302 |
| Friday | 1.68 % | +0.043 % ± 0.146 | 55.2 % | 297 |
Average open → close return, year by year (%)
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | +0.064 | −0.111 | +0.066 | −0.078 | −0.020 |
| 2022 | −0.286 | +0.091 | +0.079 | +0.024 | +0.035 |
| 2023 | −0.067 | +0.062 | +0.041 | −0.009 | +0.133 |
| 2024 | −0.048 | +0.119 | −0.107 | +0.283 | +0.152 |
| 2025 | +0.330 | +0.106 | +0.225 | +0.175 | +0.041 |
| 2026 | −0.103 | −0.070 | +0.110 | −0.305 | −0.112 |
Monthly seasonality
Return of each calendar month, from the first open to the last close. With only 6 years per month, one unusual year moves the average a lot: the median and the year-by-year table are there to show it.
| Month | Mean | Median | Positive | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +2.96 % | +2.06 % | 50 % | 6 |
| February | +0.93 % | +1.09 % | 67 % | 6 |
| March | +2.12 % | +4.63 % | 67 % | 6 |
| April | +1.49 % | +1.62 % | 67 % | 6 |
| May | +0.56 % | −0.58 % | 50 % | 6 |
| June | −3.75 % | −1.96 % | 0 % | 6 |
| July | +1.43 % | +1.69 % | 67 % | 6 |
| August | +1.95 % | +1.14 % | 50 % | 6 |
| September | −0.04 % | −3.03 % | 33 % | 6 |
| October | +1.34 % | +2.61 % | 67 % | 6 |
| November | +2.51 % | +2.64 % | 60 % | 5 |
| December | +1.70 % | +2.10 % | 80 % | 5 |
Every month, year by year (%)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | −3.6 | −6.9 | −1.5 | +3.7 | +7.8 | −7.2 | +2.6 | −0.0 | −3.1 | +1.5 | −0.5 | +3.0 |
| 2022 | −1.8 | +6.2 | +1.5 | −2.1 | −3.2 | −1.6 | −2.3 | −3.1 | −2.9 | −1.9 | +8.3 | +3.1 |
| 2023 | +5.5 | −5.2 | +7.8 | +1.2 | −1.3 | −2.3 | +2.4 | −1.3 | −4.7 | +7.4 | +2.6 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | −1.3 | +0.2 | +9.1 | +2.1 | +1.8 | −0.1 | +5.3 | +2.3 | +5.2 | +4.2 | −3.5 | −0.9 |
| 2025 | +6.7 | +2.0 | +8.7 | +5.3 | +0.2 | −0.0 | −0.4 | +4.7 | +12.0 | +3.7 | +5.6 | +2.1 |
| 2026 | +12.4 | +9.4 | −12.9 | −1.2 | −1.9 | −11.3 | +0.9 | +9.1 | −6.7 | −6.9 | — | — |
Trading sessions
How much of the day's range happens inside each session, over the last 12 months. Sessions overlap, so the shares do not add up to 100%. A session with no prices in our feed is not listed.
| Session | Average range | Median share of the day's range | Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo 09:00–15:00 Tokyo time | 124.1 bp | 53 % | 257 |
| London 08:00–16:30 London time | 162.5 bp | 71 % | 257 |
| New York 08:00–17:00 New York time | 166.2 bp | 70 % | 257 |
Volatility over the last year
ATR (14) as a percentage of the price, one point per trading day.
How it is measured
- One-minute bid prices from the cTrader broker feed we use for our own backtests: 1505 complete trading days, 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-30.
- A trading day is the broker's: it closes at 17:00 New York time, as in cTrader. Partial days (holidays) are left out.
- Range = high − low of the period, as a share of its opening price. 1 bp (basis point) = 0.01%. ATR is Wilder's 14-day average true range.
- The hourly profile is measured in UTC and kept separately for US summer and winter time, so the hours shown in your time zone stay right all year.
- Updated every day after the market data sync. These are descriptive statistics of the past: they are not a forecast and not a trading signal.