Free tool · Market statistics
Brent crude oil (BRENT) volatility by hour, day and month
When Brent crude oil moves, how much, and on which days — measured on 1506 trading days of real one-minute data from our broker feed, 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-30. Descriptive statistics of the past, not a forecast.
Volatility by hour
Over the last 12 months, the hour with the widest average range on Brent crude oil was 14:00–15:00 UTC (88.4 bp), and the quietest was 04:00–05:00 UTC (22.8 bp): 3.9 times smaller.
Average range of each one-hour bar, in basis points of price. Hours without prices in our feed are not drawn.
Table: range by hour, UTC, last 12 months
| Hour (UTC) | Mean, bp | Median, bp | Hours measured |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | 44.8 | 33.5 | 89 |
| 02:00 | 41.9 | 28.5 | 89 |
| 03:00 | 29.8 | 23.5 | 89 |
| 04:00 | 22.8 | 18.6 | 88 |
| 05:00 | 33.4 | 26.4 | 88 |
| 06:00 | 39.6 | 30.0 | 88 |
| 07:00 | 47.3 | 37.2 | 88 |
| 08:00 | 64.3 | 55.8 | 88 |
| 09:00 | 73.9 | 63.5 | 88 |
| 10:00 | 65.5 | 54.0 | 88 |
| 11:00 | 62.1 | 51.5 | 88 |
| 12:00 | 54.5 | 43.0 | 88 |
| 13:00 | 69.6 | 58.3 | 88 |
| 14:00 | 88.4 | 81.0 | 88 |
| 15:00 | 77.1 | 68.0 | 88 |
| 16:00 | 76.1 | 65.4 | 88 |
| 17:00 | 63.0 | 51.9 | 88 |
| 18:00 | 58.9 | 44.9 | 88 |
| 19:00 | 63.6 | 49.0 | 86 |
| 20:00 | 49.0 | 31.1 | 84 |
| 21:00 | 31.8 | 20.5 | 84 |
Day of the week
Wednesday has the widest average daily range (3.30%), Friday the narrowest (3.04%). Only Thursday shows an average open-to-close return that is distinguishable from zero at 95% confidence (marked •). Even then it is one measurement over a few years: check the year-by-year table before reading anything into it.
| Day | Average range | Open → close, mean ± 95% CI | Up days | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 3.20 % | −0.036 % ± 0.272 | 52.7 % | 300 |
| Tuesday | 3.24 % | −0.095 % ± 0.251 | 49.7 % | 304 |
| Wednesday | 3.30 % | +0.000 % ± 0.269 | 51.3 % | 302 |
| Thursday | 3.23 % | +0.262 % ± 0.229 • | 57.3 % | 302 |
| Friday | 3.04 % | +0.206 % ± 0.234 | 54.0 % | 298 |
Average open → close return, year by year (%)
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | +0.169 | +0.268 | +0.121 | +0.119 | +0.093 |
| 2022 | −0.053 | −0.370 | −0.101 | +0.039 | +0.524 |
| 2023 | −0.049 | −0.174 | −0.633 | +0.006 | +0.564 |
| 2024 | +0.342 | −0.274 | +0.043 | +0.529 | −0.344 |
| 2025 | −0.068 | +0.001 | −0.010 | −0.051 | −0.075 |
| 2026 | −0.667 | +0.002 | +0.704 | +1.064 | +0.524 |
Monthly seasonality
Return of each calendar month, from the first open to the last close. With only 6 years per month, one unusual year moves the average a lot: the median and the year-by-year table are there to show it.
| Month | Mean | Median | Positive | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +6.94 % | +5.12 % | 100 % | 6 |
| February | +4.96 % | +5.42 % | 67 % | 6 |
| March | +7.53 % | +3.58 % | 67 % | 6 |
| April | −1.23 % | +0.66 % | 50 % | 6 |
| May | −3.38 % | −1.91 % | 50 % | 6 |
| June | −1.32 % | +4.20 % | 67 % | 6 |
| July | +5.91 % | +3.97 % | 67 % | 6 |
| August | −2.44 % | −5.10 % | 33 % | 6 |
| September | +1.74 % | +2.66 % | 50 % | 6 |
| October | +2.97 % | +4.18 % | 67 % | 6 |
| November | −6.89 % | −5.64 % | 0 % | 5 |
| December | +1.32 % | −1.54 % | 40 % | 5 |
Every month, year by year (%)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | +6.8 | +17.2 | −2.7 | +5.4 | +3.6 | +7.6 | +0.6 | −4.6 | +9.5 | +6.2 | −15.8 | +12.4 |
| 2022 | +14.0 | +9.1 | +7.0 | +2.0 | +8.9 | −6.3 | −5.2 | −7.8 | −10.5 | +5.6 | −5.6 | −1.5 |
| 2023 | +0.0 | −2.8 | −3.6 | −5.6 | −9.6 | +3.5 | +14.1 | +2.1 | +7.2 | −7.6 | −6.5 | −5.0 |
| 2024 | +3.5 | +2.1 | +5.4 | −0.7 | −5.7 | +5.7 | −4.0 | −5.7 | −5.9 | +2.7 | −2.3 | +4.1 |
| 2025 | +2.5 | −4.6 | +1.7 | −17.4 | +1.9 | +4.9 | +7.3 | −6.3 | −1.8 | −2.2 | −4.3 | −3.4 |
| 2026 | +14.8 | +8.7 | +37.3 | +8.9 | −19.3 | −23.3 | +22.6 | +7.6 | +12.0 | +13.1 | — | — |
Trading sessions
How much of the day's range happens inside each session, over the last 12 months. Sessions overlap, so the shares do not add up to 100%. A session with no prices in our feed is not listed.
| Session | Average range | Median share of the day's range | Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo 09:00–15:00 Tokyo time | 150.2 bp | 34 % | 257 |
| London 08:00–16:30 London time | 308.3 bp | 78 % | 257 |
| New York 08:00–17:00 New York time | 304.7 bp | 77 % | 257 |
Volatility over the last year
ATR (14) as a percentage of the price, one point per trading day.
How it is measured
- One-minute bid prices from the cTrader broker feed we use for our own backtests: 1506 complete trading days, 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-30.
- A trading day is the broker's: it closes at 17:00 New York time, as in cTrader. Partial days (holidays) are left out.
- Range = high − low of the period, as a share of its opening price. 1 bp (basis point) = 0.01%. ATR is Wilder's 14-day average true range.
- The hourly profile is measured in UTC and kept separately for US summer and winter time, so the hours shown in your time zone stay right all year.
- Updated every day after the market data sync. These are descriptive statistics of the past: they are not a forecast and not a trading signal.