Free tool · Market statistics
WTI crude oil volatility by hour, day and month
When WTI crude oil moves, how much, and on which days — measured on 1504 trading days of real one-minute data from our broker feed, 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-30. Descriptive statistics of the past, not a forecast.
Volatility by hour
Over the last 12 months, the hour with the widest average range on WTI crude oil was 14:00–15:00 UTC (100.1 bp), and the quietest was 04:00–05:00 UTC (24.6 bp): 4.1 times smaller.
Average range of each one-hour bar, in basis points of price. Hours without prices in our feed are not drawn.
Table: range by hour, UTC, last 12 months
| Hour (UTC) | Mean, bp | Median, bp | Hours measured |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 36.0 | 24.5 | 89 |
| 01:00 | 57.1 | 38.6 | 89 |
| 02:00 | 44.1 | 30.1 | 89 |
| 03:00 | 32.3 | 25.2 | 87 |
| 04:00 | 24.6 | 20.1 | 87 |
| 05:00 | 34.6 | 26.8 | 87 |
| 06:00 | 40.5 | 31.3 | 87 |
| 07:00 | 48.4 | 39.9 | 87 |
| 08:00 | 68.0 | 60.6 | 87 |
| 09:00 | 81.5 | 68.8 | 87 |
| 10:00 | 69.7 | 57.0 | 87 |
| 11:00 | 65.9 | 55.9 | 87 |
| 12:00 | 59.5 | 46.7 | 87 |
| 13:00 | 76.9 | 68.5 | 87 |
| 14:00 | 100.1 | 90.2 | 88 |
| 15:00 | 86.5 | 76.0 | 88 |
| 16:00 | 83.3 | 73.3 | 88 |
| 17:00 | 68.6 | 53.8 | 88 |
| 18:00 | 64.8 | 52.0 | 88 |
| 19:00 | 68.9 | 53.2 | 87 |
| 20:00 | 54.2 | 34.0 | 83 |
| 21:00 | 34.7 | 22.0 | 83 |
| 23:00 | 39.2 | 28.4 | 89 |
Day of the week
Wednesday has the widest average daily range (3.64%), Friday the narrowest (3.35%). Only Thursday shows an average open-to-close return that is distinguishable from zero at 95% confidence (marked •). Even then it is one measurement over a few years: check the year-by-year table before reading anything into it.
| Day | Average range | Open → close, mean ± 95% CI | Up days | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 3.60 % | −0.084 % ± 0.297 | 53.0 % | 300 |
| Tuesday | 3.56 % | −0.065 % ± 0.271 | 50.7 % | 304 |
| Wednesday | 3.64 % | −0.039 % ± 0.287 | 50.3 % | 302 |
| Thursday | 3.57 % | +0.295 % ± 0.255 • | 58.6 % | 302 |
| Friday | 3.35 % | +0.180 % ± 0.265 | 52.7 % | 296 |
Average open → close return, year by year (%)
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | +0.242 | +0.269 | +0.123 | +0.121 | +0.022 |
| 2022 | −0.099 | −0.303 | −0.074 | +0.088 | +0.522 |
| 2023 | −0.113 | −0.177 | −0.614 | +0.067 | +0.597 |
| 2024 | +0.301 | −0.257 | +0.109 | +0.587 | −0.371 |
| 2025 | −0.123 | −0.003 | +0.049 | −0.091 | −0.025 |
| 2026 | −0.844 | +0.114 | +0.224 | +1.133 | +0.357 |
Monthly seasonality
Return of each calendar month, from the first open to the last close. With only 6 years per month, one unusual year moves the average a lot: the median and the year-by-year table are there to show it.
| Month | Mean | Median | Positive | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +7.52 % | +6.62 % | 83 % | 6 |
| February | +4.35 % | +4.53 % | 67 % | 6 |
| March | +8.18 % | +3.66 % | 67 % | 6 |
| April | −1.77 % | +0.59 % | 50 % | 6 |
| May | −2.07 % | −0.37 % | 50 % | 6 |
| June | −0.90 % | +5.03 % | 67 % | 6 |
| July | +5.55 % | +3.36 % | 67 % | 6 |
| August | −3.08 % | −6.48 % | 33 % | 6 |
| September | +0.98 % | +2.22 % | 50 % | 6 |
| October | +2.85 % | +4.01 % | 67 % | 6 |
| November | −7.92 % | −5.59 % | 0 % | 5 |
| December | +1.57 % | −0.46 % | 40 % | 5 |
Every month, year by year (%)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | +7.9 | +18.3 | −4.0 | +6.6 | +5.1 | +9.3 | +0.2 | −6.9 | +9.6 | +10.1 | −18.8 | +12.0 |
| 2022 | +16.0 | +8.6 | +5.1 | +3.3 | +10.4 | −8.3 | −6.8 | −8.7 | −10.5 | +5.4 | −5.6 | −0.5 |
| 2023 | −1.8 | −2.8 | −1.4 | −5.3 | −11.6 | +3.9 | +16.3 | +2.5 | +8.9 | −10.2 | −7.8 | −5.9 |
| 2024 | +5.3 | +3.5 | +6.4 | −2.1 | −5.0 | +6.4 | −3.4 | −6.1 | −6.7 | +2.6 | −3.7 | +5.4 |
| 2025 | +3.3 | −7.1 | +2.2 | −18.2 | +4.2 | +6.2 | +6.5 | −7.9 | −2.8 | −2.5 | −3.8 | −3.2 |
| 2026 | +14.4 | +5.6 | +40.7 | +5.1 | −15.6 | −23.0 | +20.5 | +8.6 | +7.3 | +11.6 | — | — |
Trading sessions
How much of the day's range happens inside each session, over the last 12 months. Sessions overlap, so the shares do not add up to 100%. A session with no prices in our feed is not listed.
| Session | Average range | Median share of the day's range | Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo 09:00–15:00 Tokyo time | 166.1 bp | 33 % | 256 |
| London 08:00–16:30 London time | 335.9 bp | 78 % | 256 |
| New York 08:00–17:00 New York time | 333.9 bp | 75 % | 256 |
Volatility over the last year
ATR (14) as a percentage of the price, one point per trading day.
How it is measured
- One-minute bid prices from the cTrader broker feed we use for our own backtests: 1504 complete trading days, 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-30.
- A trading day is the broker's: it closes at 17:00 New York time, as in cTrader. Partial days (holidays) are left out.
- Range = high − low of the period, as a share of its opening price. 1 bp (basis point) = 0.01%. ATR is Wilder's 14-day average true range.
- The hourly profile is measured in UTC and kept separately for US summer and winter time, so the hours shown in your time zone stay right all year.
- Updated every day after the market data sync. These are descriptive statistics of the past: they are not a forecast and not a trading signal.