Free tool · Market statistics
Natural gas (NATGAS) volatility by hour, day and month
When Natural gas moves, how much, and on which days — measured on 1354 trading days of real one-minute data from our broker feed, 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-30. Descriptive statistics of the past, not a forecast.
Volatility by hour
Over the last 12 months, the hour with the widest average range on Natural gas was 13:00–14:00 UTC (206.1 bp), and the quietest was 02:00–03:00 UTC (55.9 bp): 3.7 times smaller.
Average range of each one-hour bar, in basis points of price. Hours without prices in our feed are not drawn.
Table: range by hour, UTC, last 12 months
| Hour (UTC) | Mean, bp | Median, bp | Hours measured |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 61.8 | 48.4 | 89 |
| 01:00 | 61.5 | 50.0 | 89 |
| 02:00 | 55.9 | 47.3 | 89 |
| 03:00 | 65.0 | 50.1 | 87 |
| 04:00 | 69.5 | 55.5 | 87 |
| 05:00 | 118.9 | 94.8 | 87 |
| 06:00 | 132.0 | 108.6 | 87 |
| 07:00 | 87.9 | 65.6 | 87 |
| 08:00 | 80.6 | 69.8 | 87 |
| 09:00 | 83.2 | 64.9 | 87 |
| 10:00 | 91.2 | 82.6 | 87 |
| 11:00 | 116.5 | 103.9 | 87 |
| 12:00 | 176.8 | 151.5 | 87 |
| 13:00 | 206.1 | 180.8 | 87 |
| 14:00 | 192.4 | 177.1 | 88 |
| 15:00 | 180.5 | 155.5 | 88 |
| 16:00 | 161.8 | 142.5 | 88 |
| 17:00 | 167.8 | 144.1 | 88 |
| 18:00 | 187.2 | 158.6 | 87 |
| 19:00 | 124.7 | 119.6 | 87 |
| 20:00 | 88.0 | 69.5 | 83 |
| 21:00 | 63.0 | 53.3 | 83 |
| 23:00 | 71.5 | 53.3 | 89 |
Day of the week
Thursday has the widest average daily range (5.89%), Friday the narrowest (5.21%). No day shows an average open-to-close return that is distinguishable from zero at 95% confidence.
| Day | Average range | Open → close, mean ± 95% CI | Up days | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 5.60 % | +0.258 % ± 0.434 | 50.9 % | 273 |
| Tuesday | 5.56 % | −0.279 % ± 0.443 | 47.6 % | 267 |
| Wednesday | 5.67 % | +0.183 % ± 0.490 | 51.8 % | 272 |
| Thursday | 5.89 % | −0.415 % ± 0.441 | 43.8 % | 272 |
| Friday | 5.21 % | −0.320 % ± 0.394 | 45.9 % | 270 |
Average open → close return, year by year (%)
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | +0.526 | +0.113 | −0.008 | −0.483 | −0.389 |
| 2022 | +0.618 | −0.887 | +1.419 | −0.814 | −1.051 |
| 2023 | +0.481 | −1.209 | −1.240 | −0.074 | −0.210 |
| 2024 | +1.017 | −0.201 | −0.230 | −0.359 | −0.531 |
| 2025 | −0.488 | +0.024 | +0.464 | −0.449 | +0.148 |
| 2026 | −0.560 | +0.305 | +0.660 | −0.254 | +0.126 |
Monthly seasonality
Return of each calendar month, from the first open to the last close. With only 6 years per month, one unusual year moves the average a lot: the median and the year-by-year table are there to show it.
| Month | Mean | Median | Positive | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | −1.84 % | −6.11 % | 33 % | 6 |
| February | −8.29 % | −5.76 % | 17 % | 6 |
| March | +3.40 % | −4.19 % | 40 % | 5 |
| April | +5.79 % | +11.56 % | 60 % | 5 |
| May | +10.58 % | +9.12 % | 67 % | 6 |
| June | −0.97 % | −0.53 % | 40 % | 5 |
| July | +1.11 % | −6.03 % | 33 % | 6 |
| August | +6.71 % | +6.71 % | 83 % | 6 |
| September | +8.00 % | +6.50 % | 67 % | 6 |
| October | −3.90 % | −6.26 % | 20 % | 5 |
| November | +8.01 % | +15.99 % | 60 % | 5 |
| December | −12.00 % | −15.60 % | 20 % | 5 |
Every month, year by year (%)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | −2.8 | −2.6 | −6.2 | +11.6 | +1.2 | — | +5.2 | +11.2 | +24.0 | −6.3 | −9.9 | −21.8 |
| 2022 | +14.0 | −9.1 | +26.8 | +28.0 | +17.0 | −25.3 | +46.5 | +14.5 | −24.9 | −14.8 | +16.0 | −34.5 |
| 2023 | −38.6 | −0.6 | — | — | −2.8 | +18.5 | −3.1 | +6.0 | +6.4 | — | −20.0 | −11.2 |
| 2024 | −21.8 | −8.9 | −5.4 | +18.8 | +31.3 | −2.2 | −18.1 | +5.1 | +36.4 | −2.9 | +33.8 | +23.0 |
| 2025 | −9.4 | +8.9 | +6.0 | −21.4 | −3.1 | +4.6 | −9.0 | −3.9 | +6.6 | +15.1 | +20.1 | −15.6 |
| 2026 | +47.6 | −37.5 | −4.2 | −8.0 | +19.8 | −0.5 | −14.8 | +7.4 | −0.4 | −10.6 | — | — |
Trading sessions
How much of the day's range happens inside each session, over the last 12 months. Sessions overlap, so the shares do not add up to 100%. A session with no prices in our feed is not listed.
| Session | Average range | Median share of the day's range | Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo 09:00–15:00 Tokyo time | 142.1 bp | 27 % | 256 |
| London 08:00–16:30 London time | 377.8 bp | 84 % | 256 |
| New York 08:00–17:00 New York time | 394.3 bp | 86 % | 256 |
Volatility over the last year
ATR (14) as a percentage of the price, one point per trading day.
How it is measured
- One-minute bid prices from the cTrader broker feed we use for our own backtests: 1354 complete trading days, 2021-01-04 to 2026-10-30.
- A trading day is the broker's: it closes at 17:00 New York time, as in cTrader. Partial days (holidays) are left out.
- Range = high − low of the period, as a share of its opening price. 1 bp (basis point) = 0.01%. ATR is Wilder's 14-day average true range.
- The hourly profile is measured in UTC and kept separately for US summer and winter time, so the hours shown in your time zone stay right all year.
- Updated every day after the market data sync. These are descriptive statistics of the past: they are not a forecast and not a trading signal.